July 06, 2009

Life after SAP....

I wonder...if there are any readers of this blog....I get occasional hits from...Finland, Philippines, India, and all sorts of places in the US.

It's been a while....since I looked up...and assessed the situation...life goes by so quickly when you are busy...working...making money....

So quickly in fact...that I didn't even notice that a year had passed by since I was toasting my departure with Mojito in hand....celebrating with my friends and colleagues...the turning of a new page in the book of my life....a true Turning Point.

And that is what has become of this change....Turning Point Group, LLC now approaching it's one year anniversary...successfully providing for it's owner...poised to grow...and ready as well.

It's amazing what happens during one rotation of the Sun!

Four seasons occur (in each of two hemispheres)....lives are created...lives are lost, fortunes disappear, and fortunes are rebuilt...the circle of life continues....

13 years develops deep pockets of knowledge in many ways not fathomed nor valued by most.  New blood replaces old wisdom to spark energy and cloak the error of their ways.  Time reveals the truth and soothes the transitioning.  Money lubricates everything.

And after all is said and done....we repeat the cycle again...new faces...old games...new tools...old logic...new money...old wealth...new president...old problems...new year...another revolution around the sun!

Tomorrow...July 7th...is "La fiesta de San Fermín".....or St. Fermin's Day!

Most people don't know this but the running of the bulls in Pamplona is commemorated in honor of the feast of St. Fermín.

Hemingway memorialized it with "The sun also rises".

So...to all...I sing the song of San Fermín!

1ro de Enero....2do de Febrero ...3er de marzo...4 de abril!

5 de mayo...6 de junio...7 de julio es San Fermín!!!!


I toast to you all....and celebrate another Sunrise....and....a successful running with the bulls!



March 07, 2009

How Do BI Vendor Product Roadmaps Impact Customer CAPEX Budgets for Software Implementations?

First off it’s basically a 3 player battleground, Oracle and SAP, with IBM playing catch-up. Microsoft is on the sidelines nervously awaiting their turn to play, but way behind from a “big-business” gaming standpoint. I don't agree with some market opinions that SAP has fallen behind in terms of having an “Integrated” set of solutions. I spent 13 years within SAP and always marveled at how they always took the role of lead steer in terms of “SOA”, "Web enabled apps", "Marketplaces", "Protocol Inclusion", "Industry Packaging and Market Segments", "% of R&D Invested, and many other areas and initiatives. I continue to be amazed to see many competitors just copy and promote the same initiatives and industry buzzwords as a defensive tactic.

Over the last 5 years SAP hired thousands of people who were x-Peoplesoft, Seibel, Oracle and Hyperion folks and as a result adopted some of the incoming "Organizational Cultures" of these workforce immigrants, but mostly a couple in particular....the "Sales & Marketing" and the "Management & Control" cultures and the American philosophy of doing business. In my opinion they have a trade off of revenue & short-term profits at the cost of a significant detriment to customer satisfaction and loyalty and long term growth. The net result has witnessed a trade-off between "Substance" to "Sales" and "Long Term" to "Short Term" focus, not particularly revered German values as I understand.

This has left the two major players as virtually indistinguishable, at least in the present era.

There are two major battle fronts in the “Business Intelligence” field, the CFO, COO’s, Cxx (Business Users) & CIO (Technology Managers).

The BO acquisition...if you look at the pure numbers of BI Sales given the US$7B purchase price would have taken 10 years payback period on the basis of pure BI sales alone. That doesn't make to much sense for most finance guys. But if you factor into account the fact that within BO's installed base of approximately over 27000 customers worldwide of which approximately only 5k were SAP Joint customers, there was an opportunity to sell into the Oracle & Other ERP installed base SAP's main line of products in the ERP which more than validated the consummation of such an expensive deal.

But back to the 2 battle fronts.....

1) Data Integration:

* SAP was traditionally weak in this area. They relied upon a few different strategies over the years, partnering with Informatica, an OEM arrangement with Ascential..(which of course fizzled once IBM took over completely), and now BO's strong EIM Suite of products completes the package.

* But here we're really talking about 2 layers, EAI & ETL. With EAI, SAP partnered with WebMethods and eventually absorbed the technology with its own branded application of XI, which is now part of the SAP Netweaver Stack. WEB Server also replaced the IIS and (SAP) ITS but really had roots in InQmy.

* SAP rebuilt its platform from the bottom up, WebServer, XI, BI & KM, and on top the Portal Technology which was gained via the Top-Tier acquisition which was both Dot-Net & Java Based and quickly integrated with the Netweaver Stack. They adopted IBM's Eclipse protocol for their object based development platform and these actions took them to a lead of approximately 2-3 years ahead of Oracle with their "Fusion" or better said con-fusion created by way of the mammoth number of acquisitions, Siebel, Peoplesoft, and Hyperion. Oracle stepped up to the plate however purchasing BEA which basically unified their technology stack, but has the same pains as SAP in stitching together and “Re-Weaving” a new integrated suite of products.

* So bottom line....both are basically commodities...and both can work interchangeably with or without each other. IBM is there too.

2) Business Utilization:

* All the technology in the world is only as good as the results it achieves. At least in the minds of "non-IT" business people. The CFO's office for a very long time has been dominated by legacy accounting systems and by agnostic believers of best of breed SAP, Oracle, Peoplesoft, Seibel, Baan and many other G/L applications, but most often by a sincere belief in “do-it-yourself” spreadsheets based on light integration with MS Office products.

* When it comes to Consolidations, or Business Planning, Hyperion has held the biggest share of the market and still does from a "not broken don't fix it" standpoint. But many CFO's and companies are not happy with the entirety of integrated solutions and looking at a high TCO given multiple systems, multiple data integrations, multiple databases, and multiple BI systems and analytics as well as the SOX & IFRS requirements and increased exposure during these “high pressure” economic times.

* At the same time, the main competitor of all of these applications is not SAP Business Objects , Hyperion, Cognos, Microstrategy, Teradata,....and many many others...it's "MICROSOFT" Excel.

* So the sales pitch of the large vendors is mostly aimed against uncontrolled, dispersed, distributed, sparse, unsecured strategic data and intellectual property existing within a highly mobile workforce environment capable of disseminating proprietary intelligence and with all the portability to their favor. In other words Security. I worked within the Security Industry for 7 years and one thing I learned from this (quasi-intelligence) industry, is….It’s easy to sell fear! It’s actually good for Security selling businesses!

* The other term most likely used by BI Software Vendors and Analyst which for me is “making information ACTIONABLE”! This is so…”passé” (out with the old guard and administration!) Believe me, COO’s, CFO’s, and successful managers don’t only want information to be “actionable”, this connotes a “potential action” but is based upon the whim and slack of a “responsible” employee. That’s why we’re facing the current economic crash and debacle, because some “irresponsible” employees, managers, chiefs within the Fed, Treasury, and SEC, didn’t see the need to take action, although Intelligence was “ACTIONABLE!” My many years within the ranks of industry as chief bean counter tell me that they want information to be processed into Intelligence which initiates validation via inquiry and prescribes orders for remedy (action) bringing symptoms into a “within established parameters” equilibrium status. To quote a past COO “I don’t like being the “bad guy” always having to kick someone in the pants in order to get things done…have the system do this for me so by the time I do my rounds the managers already know what I know and have even had a chance to remedy things before I do. I’m basically a nice guy and would prefer such pro-activeness!”

* The closest thing I’ve seen which approximates anything relating to my previous point, is the integration of Business Process Management with Business Intelligence. But this is NOT on any roadmap I’ve seen. SAP’s got a whiff of this but Product Management has not yet packaged or proceeded to officially launch such an initiative and if so is keeping it under closed covers. The only thing near it is Actionable (SOA) or On-Demand products.

* Oracle, Hyperion, Cognos, IBM, are not on the forefront of this direction but are sure to follow.

So in summary, how do customers view their future investment into BI? Cautiously, they await future release dates and functionality promises, they evaluate the cost “as-is” and “to-be” versus the benefits (ROI) to be received. They evaluate the current return on their invested projects that are “productive” and whether or not they can extend out this return via corporate/entity wide absorption and utilization.

Beyond this they sift through mounds of prophetic sales people and proficient solution engineers who execute wonderful theatrics and soap operas complete with espionage, provocative relationships, romancing, and pontification, and victory parties and celebrations only to find after it is all said and done…the cold hard reality of a sobering headache…and a hell of a task cleaning up and getting things back into order.

Let’s focus on our deep rooted values and ethics…and get to work. There’s room for investment without all the hype and fear mongering, and there are sincere people out here willing to understand issues and resolve problems effectively and efficiently. CAPEX is Long Term my friends, not short term and that is what controls project spend, not your annual budgetary process which is subordinate to CAPEX funding by the board.

Happy Hunting in 2009!


Fermin F. Iduate Intelligence Advisor - Enterprise Performance Management

& Business Intelligence

Turning Point Group, LLC
8470 SW 148th Drive Miami, FL 33158

M +1-(786)-556-5415 (cell)
F +1-(786)-427-1360 (fax)

http://TurningPoint-Solutions.com

Confidential Information

The information transmitted is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons of entitles other than the intended recipient is prohibited. This information shall be keep as confidential and should not be disclose to any third party without the written consent given by the party who transmitted such information. If you received this in error, please contact the sender and delete the material from any computer.

La información transmitida es para el uso exclusivo de la persona o entidad a quien va dirigida, y contiene información de carácter confidencial o privilegiado. Se prohibe a cualquier persona o entidad distinta al destinatario, cualquier revisión, retransmisión, distribución u otro uso de la información trasmitida. Esta información confidencial no podrá ser de ningún modo divulgada, revelada, entregada o transmitida a terceros, salvo autorización previa y por escrito de la parte emisora. Si recibió este mensaje por equivocación, atentamente le solicitamos eliminar la información.image001.jpg

February 24, 2009

The confluence of BI and change management

Having worked for many years as a consumer of systems information, and also within the Business Intelligence Software Business with SAP & Business Objects, I agree with the Statement that change management is a companion bedfellow in the wake of BI implementation brought to light in Peter Thomas’ blog: “The Confluence of BI and Change Management”

http://peterthomas.wordpress.com/2009/02/24/the-confluence-of-bi-and-change- management/#comment-136

Proven business models, analysis, queries, cubes, universes,…whatever you want to call them, when implemented require the appropriate, cleansed source data, as well as processes which homogenize the information, so as to report clean and navigable information. Many implementors of BI Systems will admit that a successful implementation of BI has as a related byproduct, the tendency to require ORDER to improve in all underlying source systems, thereby also bringing about change.

A very important distinction needs to be drawn between what is INFORMATION, versus what is INTELLIGENCE. Information is input which an intelligent “Mind” or “Processor” interprets, and defines ACTIONS that need to be executed in order to complete the circle of action vs. reaction, or detection vs. prevention, or inspection vs. expectation.

Most “BI” companies go so far as to make information “Actionable” leaving it basically up to the HUMAN FACTOR to resolve, therefore the Change Management requirement. Making the “ACTION” part of the Software Solution by incorporating business rules associated with the business process is the CHANGE that needs to be managed.


Fermin F. Iduate Intelligence Advisor - Enterprise Performance Management

& Business Intelligence

Turning Point Group, LLC
8470 SW 148th Drive Miami, FL 33158

M +1-(786)-556-5415 (cell)
F +1-(786)-427-1360 (fax)

http://TurningPoint-Solutions.com

Confidential Information

The information transmitted is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons of entitles other than the intended recipient is prohibited. This information shall be keep as confidential and should not be disclose to any third party without the written consent given by the party who transmitted such information. If you received this in error, please contact the sender and delete the material from any computer.

La información transmitida es para el uso exclusivo de la persona o entidad a quien va dirigida, y contiene información de carácter confidencial o privilegiado. Se prohibe a cualquier persona o entidad distinta al destinatario, cualquier revisión, retransmisión, distribución u otro uso de la información trasmitida. Esta información confidencial no podrá ser de ningún modo divulgada, revelada, entregada o transmitida a terceros, salvo autorización previa y por escrito de la parte emisora. Si recibió este mensaje por equivocación, atentamente le solicitamos eliminar la información.


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February 17, 2009

INFLATION VS. DEVALUATION

There’s a direct inverse relationship regarding Inflation & Devaluation that has held true throughout history, witnessed in Europe after the discovery of America, during the expansion of the British Empire, before and after WW1 & 2, during the 70’s & 80’s and the Oil Embargo period and throughout the Gulf wars and to this day!

In short:

For every significant rise in INFLATION experienced by users of a currency…..there is a corresponding decrease in the valuation of such currency, or in other words (devaluation).

The last 30 years have shown average house values rise from US$100k to 450k, and back down to US$ 300k. Oil prices have gone from $1/gal to +$4/gal, and back down to $2/gal. We’ve all witnessed increases in Insurance, Electricity, Food Prices, Electronics…just about everything.

But during this period a curious thing happened that really has not surfaced or been a major subject of discussion……how much the dollar is worth in comparison to other currencies. Many of us who have been fortunate enough to make a good living and have travelled to Europe are well aware that travelling to Europe over the past few years has been “unaffordable”, yet at the same time here in the states we’ve been seeing planeloads of Europeans coming here to frolic on vacation and buy goods which in some cases due to the really cheap bargains can actually pay for the trip itself.

Folks, we were all bamboozled by the previous administration into believing that we had a healthy 3-4% annual inflation rate….but how could this be with property, commodity, and fuel prices along with the price of living all increasing at a real rate of 11-15%. According to GAAP, FASB8 & FASB52 (old school rules) and sustained inflation in excess of 10% for 3 consecutive years is ruled a “Hyper-Inflationary” economy!

You can’t have high inflation without a corresponding devaluation of that currency…it’s just a natural effect caused by balancing external balances in the global trade system. This effect is not something really noticed by the local population and users of a currency because everything is all relative…salaries go up, cost go up, house values go up, mortgages go up,…etc. In the past, interest rates also went up…causing a barrier to further inflation in the cost of goods of an economy. More recently under the reigns of Alan Greenspan…Interest Rates were held artificially DOWN, thereby prodding Growth in values of everything, houses, cars, electronics, just about everything.

So in trying to keep inflation at bay….they actually inspired it. All the while, the EURO and other Currencies increased in Strength relative to the US Dollar. But who cares?....We don’t need to travel to Europe anymore its dangerous anyway right?

And the dollar continued to erode in Value. The eroded value also meant it cost more dollars to buy Petroleum and other foreign goods, therefore even higher prices!

Well, at some point it had to stop.

I’m happy to report that since the bubble burst in Oct 2008 up through the end of the year….we’ve seen a DROP in US$ values in homes, investments and commodities of about 40%. Of course the doomsayers will say that it’s only going to get worse…but let me just open up the possibility that….well…there are already signs that things are getting better!!

What….are you crazy??? (You may be yelling)

Nope….see, already the US$ has strengthened to the tune of 23% since JAN 1st 2009 thereby increase purchasing power OUTSIDE the US in Europe and elsewhere! With our currency stronger…we can leverage more in any deal we deal. We’ve taken the hits and are redirecting our investments and long term strategy!

The reverse also holds true….a deflation also causes a correspondingly inverse reaction in the value of a currency thereby cause a VALUATION increase in the Dollar.

In real terms…..although our houses are worth less (in relative terms to US Citizen’s) they are actually worth MORE from a foreigner’s perspective who would like to live here!!

In other words, the demand for US LIFE is actually higher as evidenced by the higher entrance cost required.

That’s called “Appreciation” and that’s why I say, things are moving in the right direction!!!


Fermin F. Iduate Intelligence Advisor - Enterprise Performance Management

& Business Intelligence

Turning Point Group, LLC
8470 SW 148th Drive Miami, FL 33158

M +1-(786)-556-5415 (cell)
F +1-(786)-427-1360 (fax)

http://TurningPoint-Solutions.com

Confidential Information

The information transmitted is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons of entitles other than the intended recipient is prohibited. This information shall be keep as confidential and should not be disclose to any third party without the written consent given by the party who transmitted such information. If you received this in error, please contact the sender and delete the material from any computer.

La información transmitida es para el uso exclusivo de la persona o entidad a quien va dirigida, y contiene información de carácter confidencial o privilegiado. Se prohibe a cualquier persona o entidad distinta al destinatario, cualquier revisión, retransmisión, distribución u otro uso de la información trasmitida. Esta información confidencial no podrá ser de ningún modo divulgada, revelada, entregada o transmitida a terceros, salvo autorización previa y por escrito de la parte emisora. Si recibió este mensaje por equivocación, atentamente le solicitamos eliminar la información.image001.jpg

February 11, 2009

Good days...Bad days...Cold & Hot..Stimulus or Bust!

Well folks, now that I can post via email straight to my blog without having to log in as administrator…etc. I’m going to start taking advantage of this short-cut and hopefully post more frequently!

The end of last week and early this week I believe was the first break in this dark cloud of economic FUD that has hovered over the world since the Sept-Dec meltdown of financial markets around the world. Certain stocks broke their upper resistance levels that have persisted since December where their 10 year lows have been tested, and re-tested to the point that they are concrete in their resistance to drop in any further real values and the upward ceiling break signals at least a little more breathing room and future hope!

This signals the only saving grace that I am aware of…. after the majority of us have experienced real losses in Capital Wealth of approximately 40% in Property Valuations, and 50% in Equities & Investments. If you own businesses you are no doubt experiencing slowdowns which are straining your capacity to survive these economic droughts….but it precisely these times….which define the long term survivors vs. the weaker entities.

Even the large companies SAP, Microsoft, IBM, GM, BofA, ….. are reacting with “herd behavior” looking for safe cover by all taking the same direction and appeasing their stockholders desire for protectionist and cost cutting tactics, when what is needed is to be brave and bold and break free of the “same old samo” tactics of the past 30 years.

The following excerpt from the Time magazine is dated Monday, Apr. 02, 1973:

For the U.S., the sharp rise in prices and the increase in Arab ownership come at a time when the nation's reliance on oil from the Middle East is expected to increase dramatically: from 7% of total U.S. consumption today to as much as 50% by the 1980s. President Nixon is said to be convinced, however, that the U.S. must not allow itself to become so dependent on such a distant and unstable region. In his forthcoming message to Congress on the energy crisis, he is expected to ask for funds to develop other sources of energy—coal, shale-oil deposits, chemical substitutes and solar and atomic power—in a hurry. "The time to start worrying about Arab blackmail," says one veteran of the Middle Eastern oil business, "is when the Arabs tell you not to worry about blackmail."

Even Nixon, that much hated sleazy power monger….knew what had to be done…IN 1973…REPEAT 1973!!!!!

Even Donald Trump when asked on Larry King the other evening as to what he felt was the root cause of the current economic crisis said very bluntly, “The Oil Producing Countries”.

But what happened….just like the drug addict….it’s easier to keep on scoring and subsidizing the need.the habbit…the addiction…by whatever means…regardless of the self-destructive ending it brings on. The US simply turned it’s back on self dependency…one of the most primordial characteristics that this country was founded upon, and opted for foreign dependency. To top it off they’ve sold out on just about every other aspect of intellectual property via outsourcing and cheap foreign labor facilities, without replenishing the vacuum created in the US with newer and far more advanced industry and technology.

So…that’s were we are……..some days are good….some days are bad….winter comes…. And then it goes….another Stimulus Passes….and the world will react….or maybe not!

Cheer up folks….be positive…..make changes to your old habits….try hard……breathe some fresh air…..enjoy the real things in life….”never give up”…..and all will soon make sense!


Fermin F. Iduate Intelligence Advisor - Enterprise Performance Management
& Business Intelligence
Turning Point Group, LLC
8470 SW 148th Drive Miami, FL 33158 M +1-(786)-556-5415 (cell)
F +1-(786)-427-1360 (fax)
http://TurningPoint-Solutions.com
Confidential Information The information transmitted is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons of entitles other than the intended recipient is prohibited. This information shall be keep as confidential and should not be disclose to any third party without the written consent given by the party who transmitted such information. If you received this in error, please contact the sender and delete the material from any computer. La información transmitida es para el uso exclusivo de la persona o entidad a quien va dirigida, y contiene información de carácter confidencial o privilegiado. Se prohibe a cualquier persona o entidad distinta al destinatario, cualquier revisión, retransmisión, distribución u otro uso de la información trasmitida. Esta información confidencial no podrá ser de ningún modo divulgada, revelada, entregada o transmitida a terceros, salvo autorización previa y por escrito de la parte emisora. Si recibió este mensaje por equivocación, atentamente le solicitamos eliminar la información.

February 03, 2009

Posting from BB

Well this is one way to post to my blog....doing the "CrashBerry" thing!

Turning Point Group, LLC (Sent via BlackBerry from T-Mobile)

My Resume.....

My CV :)

January 23, 2009

Just where exactly are y'all going?

Exitsign2

I couldn't resist sharing the following article from yesterday's Washington Post entitled "Staff Finds White House in the Technological Dark Ages" referring to OBAMA's staff's findings in its first few days:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/21/AR2009012104249.html

Are you shocked?   First.....there's the news about Obama maybe not being able to do his crack-berry thing while shuffling around DC....then a whole new direction announced on the new basis for international security...."reestablishing American ethic"s in International Relations".  Today he signed executive orders demanding shut-down of all our "Terrorist interrogation Centers" within a year and the immediate discontinuation of unlawful and unacceptable interrogation techniques.  Fidel is stating he believes him to be a sincere man....Europe and the Far East are awaiting trepidatiously his plans on bringing back in tune this globally sputtering economic engine....and the Muslim world is gasping a sign of relief.

Well we asked for change...so we better embrace it now. 

Somehow...(I don't know if its because I'm not daily involved with mainstream corporate America)...it seems like everyone's not firing on all four cylinders...driving with one foot on the brake and just enough gas to keep cautiously in motion...checking our bank balances more regularly...slowing down our shop-cart purchases and filling them with less "goodies".

Everyone's kind of waiting for the magic cure...to what seems to have been a sudden illness.  Warren Buffet today stated that what we've undergone in this economic crisis has been another "Pearl Harbor" attack on our sovereignty.

And yet, Apple & Google blew through their targets have generated mounds of cash and yet the vultures are still bashing them for being ahead in terrible times.   Can you understand this...two companies who have broken the mold...set their own rules...changed the game..and the bastions of business are crapping all over them because they are the rising stars of the new generation.

Which brings me to the above image....I had to recreate this from a story a good friend of mine relayed to me over the phone...(I think from a cartoon in Info-week).  

Were are you going today?   (Note:  This used to be a default screen saver on Microsoft!)

This is so ... "passé".    The new question to ask is "Which way are you going?".   This implies the need to make a decision as to direction. 

We have a new "lead steer" now...the herd will soon follow....where are we going everyone asks?

I dunno......but it has something to do with "green pastures" and a lot of it!  Race you their!!

December 31, 2008

Begin the beguine in 2009!

I wanted to throw out a few parting words for this fowl and wretched year, put 2008 behind me and open up a new positive outlook for 2009 beginning with the song "Begin the Beguine" written by Cole Porter and introduced by June Knight in the Broadway musical Jubilee (1935).

Cole Porter wrote the music for this musical which ran for 169 days, and the story line is very befitting of the changing times we are now living....:

Story goes like this..."When an impending revolution threatens a royal family of a fictional Kingdom, the King and his regime opts to abandon their responsibilities and pursue their private dreams. The King meets party hostess Eva Standing; the Queen becomes enamored with swimmer-turned-actor Charles Rausmiller; the Prince pursues singer Karen O'Kane; and the Princess is wooed by playwright/composer/actor Eric Dare. When the hostile uprising proves to be a hoax, the four return to power, bringing with them the commoners who have taught them some important life lessons."

We all need a taste of reality and experience life sometimes ....outside of our normal realm!  This makes us more grounded and creates capable leaders that understand things from the outside in, not just from our own self sustained beliefs of the world which we have created and defined for ourselves.

This may hurt a bit...but in the long run we'll all be better off!

Let's begin the dance and celebrate the fact that the music will play, we can enjoy the future, and that we are better off now than we were in the past!!

A very productive, smart, hard working, hard playing, significant, strategic, and collectively unifying and prosperous 2009 to all of you!!   Let's not forget to keep the smiles and good nature at full force, and enjoy our work along the way!

Let's make things better! 

November 21, 2008

History repeats itself..."Inequality of wealth and income"

Sometimes the past although simpler and antiquated....seems much more crystallin and easier to understand.

Take these words from Marriner S. Eccles, who served as Franklin D. Roosevelt's Chairman of the Federal Reserve from November 1934 to February 1948, where he details what he believed caused the Depression in his memoirs, Beckoning Frontiers (New York, Alfred A. Knopf, 1951)[24]:

As mass production has to be accompanied by mass consumption, mass consumption, in turn, implies a distribution of wealth -- not of existing wealth, but of wealth as it is currently produced -- to provide men with buying power equal to the amount of goods and services offered by the nation's economic machinery. [Emphasis in original.]

Instead of achieving that kind of distribution, a giant suction pump had by 1929-30 drawn into a few hands an increasing portion of currently produced wealth. This served them as capital accumulations. But by taking purchasing power out of the hands of mass consumers, the savers denied to themselves the kind of effective demand for their products that would justify a reinvestment of their capital accumulations in new plants. In consequence, as in a poker game where the chips were concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, the other fellows could stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit ran out, the game stopped.

That is what happened to us in the twenties. We sustained high levels of employment in that period with the aid of an exceptional expansion of debt outside of the banking system. This debt was provided by the large growth of business savings as well as savings by individuals, particularly in the upper-income groups where taxes were relatively low. Private debt outside of the banking system increased about fifty per cent. This debt, which was at high interest rates, largely took the form of mortgage debt on housing, office, and hotel structures, consumer installment debt, brokers' loans, and foreign debt. The stimulation to spend by debt-creation of this sort was short-lived and could not be counted on to sustain high levels of employment for long periods of time. Had there been a better distribution of the current income from the national product -- in other words, had there been less savings by business and the higher-income groups and more income in the lower groups -- we should have had far greater stability in our economy. Had the six billion dollars, for instance, that were loaned by corporations and wealthy individuals for stock-market speculation been distributed to the public as lower prices or higher wages and with less profits to the corporations and the well-to-do, it would have prevented or greatly moderated the economic collapse that began at the end of 1929.

The time came when there were no more poker chips to be loaned on credit. Debtors thereupon were forced to curtail their consumption in an effort to create a margin that could be applied to the reduction of outstanding debts. This naturally reduced the demand for goods of all kinds and brought on what seemed to be overproduction, but was in reality underconsumption when judged in terms of the real world instead of the money world. This, in turn, brought about a fall in prices and employment.

Unemployment further decreased the consumption of goods, which further increased unemployment, thus closing the circle in a continuing decline of prices. Earnings began to disappear, requiring economies of all kinds in the wages, salaries, and time of those employed. And thus again the vicious circle of deflation was closed until one third of the entire working population was unemployed, with our national income reduced by fifty per cent, and with the aggregate debt burden greater than ever before, not in dollars, but measured by current values and income that represented the ability to pay. Fixed charges, such as taxes, railroad and other utility rates, insurance and interest charges, clung close to the 1929 level and required such a portion of the national income to meet them that the amount left for consumption of goods was not sufficient to support the population.

This then, was my reading of what brought on the depression.