Well here we are again...another October...another "Black Monday" and this "Flat World" as coined by Thomas L. Friedman now understands the old saying "what goes around..comes around".
How connected we all are!
Awakening (as is usual these days) at 3am only to view the Tsunami effect in the European, Russian, Asian, and Latin American exchanges caused by the Friday Oct. 3rd ignorance of the "Bailout Bill" by the US Market exchanges caused a primal reaction within in me, and I resolved not to look at my positions, not to despair, and to keep an even keel despite the height and intensity of the storm we face at this particular point in time.
So why the title?
Many years ago...one of the strongest characters I've ever had cross the path of my experience in Business...Mr. Fernando Carrizosa, EVP of the International Division of at that point in time the world's 3rd largest Security Company in the world...said to me...."Trust is no subsitute for control".
In business this concept is key. It goes without saying that any entrepreneur/business person worth his weight in gold knows that you need to be at the center of all operations within your business in tune with what's going on and who's doing what.
Senator LLoyd Benson of Texas during the Vice Presidential debate of the election campaign of 1988 against Quayle said "You can expect what you inspect"
This is just good old practical common sense. Who was minding the store while the bandits got away with our fortune?
Richard A. Fuld, chief executive of the bankrupt Lehman Brothers was interrogated by a congressional committee today trying to nail down this very issue...did a lack of control by Washington propelled by private interest..propelled by predatory lending practises cause the current financial crisis?
At the moment..all the players agree on a common description of the problem at hand, a ubiquitous "lack of liquidity" in all markets.
How does liquidity or in other words "CASH' simply evaporate?
For everybody specially our institutional investors, investments in stocks, securities are usually viewed within a 3-5 year timeline. In such a perspective view, a Long Position is ultimately the play. So in a situation where most of the heard is in a Long Position and all of a sudden a few "Mavericks" break off to bet the Short Position spreading doom & gloom and fear and spewing out the stupidity of the institutional longs, these same Mavericks backed and supported by huge capital with a vested stake in deleveraging the risk that they have held for a long time start accumulating capital on the sidelines along with everyone else jumping ship....the floor of the market places around the world all of a sudden gives way....what is the overall effect??
Only long sellers in a market with no buyers.....or in other words a catastrophic "Flat Tire" in the worlds stock exchanges.
The tire isn't broken, it can be patched and re-inflated...but this will only happen with the onset of liquidity.
Of course the money/capital/equity did not disappear. It's still out there...and at this point in time unless they are terrorist nobody even really cares who has the capital. The issue is that even if you are Terrorist and you have all this wealth under your control...its not going anywhere unless it flows through the worlds financial channels and central banks.
You see...it's not about the complex weave of derivatives, sub-prime, whatever you can imagine vehicles...its about the cash!
He who controls the cash wins! Chavez proved this with his takeover of PDVSA back 10 years ago. Fidel showed this almost 50 years ago! OPEC even showed the US several times in the 70's and 80's and more recently over the past year.
So...I say to those who have the cash "Control is no subtitute for Trust". This is the situation for all of those who are excessively greedy, and rich. Who do you trust now for your cash? With your Gold? With all those houses?
Better get back in the the game and let a few bills fly and get this engine rolling again so that the compressor can fill up the tire again!!!
Inshallah
Is it just me & my wife? We've recently been observing the herd behavior while visiting our normal watering holes...(Starbucks, Subways, Supermarkets, Restaurants..etc.) and are asking ourselves... "What recession..depression?" Business is normal as usual. The only area that seems to be lighter is at the major malls, but even the Apple Store is as packed as always.
Has your local economic circles been hit by the current recession? (17 votes) This poll will end in 1 week